Study and Work in the USA Under Trump: Insights for Indian Students

TL;DR

This in-depth blog examines the potential effects of Trump’s re-election on Indian students aspiring to study and work in the USA. Delve into key insights on immigration policies, including F1 visa trends, the importance of Optional Practical Training (OPT), and evolving H-1B visa criteria. Learn how a merit-based immigration system could create opportunities for highly skilled STEM graduates while presenting challenges for others. With a focus on the competitive international education landscape, discover why America continues to attract global talent despite uncertainties.

Wading through Google in the wake of the US election, brings up many speculations concerning the coming four years of the Trump presidency. Indians currently studying in the USA or hoping to study there, are alert to every straw in the wind. As they size up President-elect Trump, they are taking into account not only pronouncements that he made while on the campaign trail, but also the on-the-ground situation during his first term in office. 

 One may be pessimistic or optimistic about the changes that will result from America’s imminent regime change, but one thing is certain: Change will be there. One such area of change would be a higher emphasis on merit based immigration.

Merit-based immigration is a system that prioritizes the admission of immigrants based on their skills, qualifications, and potential contributions to the host country’s economy and society. This approach often considers factors like education, work experience, language proficiency, and specialized expertise, aiming to attract individuals who can fill critical labor shortages, drive innovation, and strengthen economic growth. Merit-based systems are designed to align immigration policies with national interests while fostering a highly skilled workforce. However, critics argue that such systems may overlook humanitarian considerations and the benefits of diversity.

Even in a giddy political climate, dealing with rhetoric is not a serious problem. What matters are actual changes to laws and regulations. While conjectures about changes that the Trump presidency will usher in are rife, there are things to bear in mind. The US president cannot rule by decree. Significant changes, especially those involving new laws, budgets, or major shifts in policy, must be legislated through both the House of Representatives and the Senate and they may be challenged in the Supreme Court.  

Trump has always presented himself as a Super Tycoon, a businessman who knows how to get the best possible deal. Objectively speaking, international students are a very good deal indeed.  As per an article posted on the Pie News, titled What does a second Trump presidency mean for US international education?

American universities and colleges recruited over 1.05 million international students in the 2022-23 academic year, representing 5.6 percent of the US college student population. These students made a significant financial contribution, not only to the universities – which benefit from the typically higher tuition fees they charge – but to the US economy.  NAFSA (National Association of Foreign Student Advisors, a non-profit representing international educators) calculates the economic impact of international students in the USA at $40 billion, and puts job creation at roughly 370,000.

What did President Trump actually do during his first term in office? 

In his first week in the White House in 2017, Trump signed an executive order banning nationals from Iran, 

Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen, as well as North Korea and Venezuela, from entering the United States. This was his ‘Ban on Anti-American nations”. The rate of visa refusals for Chinese students rose.  In July 2020 — in response to the COVID-19 pandemic — the Trump administration announced that international students enrolled in full online courses or programs at U.S. universities would not be eligible to enter the country or obtain visa status. (Later overturned by the Supreme Court.) He also issued a proclamation that restricted foreign-born professionals and long-time H-1B visa holders from working in the country. (This too was overturned.) 

 It would appear that under President Trump, the USA turned a scowling face on international students but a look at enrollment figures shows a very different picture.

The fact is that during Trump’s first term, international student enrollment in the USA increased.  

It was up every year from 2016 to 2019.  It nosedived dramatically in 2019-2020, but that was on account of covid. 

Looking to the future, immigration analysts are unsure of exactly what to expect.

 Currently the US does not cap international student visas, and colleges and universities are partially exempt from the strict cap on skilled worker – H-1B – visas. While there is no direct path from being an international student to becoming a permanent resident, since the Bush administration (2001 to 2009) STEM graduates have been eligible to stay in the country for a period of Optional Practical Training, during which many are able to find work-visa sponsorship. This relatively open immigration environment for scholars is part of the reason the US is a magnet for students globally. 

Both Optional Practical Training and the H1-B visa are of great importance to students graduating from STEM courses.  There are a lot of companies which have been regular sponsors of H-1B visas in the past and have continued to do so during the election year too.

Last week Trump appointed Stephen Miller as his White House deputy chief of staff for policy and Homeland Security Advisor. He has been widely known as an Immigration hardliner. Miller is expected to continue pushing for policies that limit OPT opportunities and severely restrict H-1B visas which are part of a much wider anti-immigrant plan. Does president-elect Trump fully back Miller’s vision?  In his victory speech, when he addressed his supporters after the election had been called:

 “We’re gonna have to seal up those borders, and we’re gonna have to let people come into our country. We want people to come back in. But we have to, we have to let them come back in, but they have to come in legally.”

There is nothing illegal about the way Indian students enter the US to study, nor is there anything illegal about the way they work in the US following the completion of their degrees. However, if the OPT programme is curtailed and approvals for H-1B visas fall, then Indian students will be disproportionately affected by these restrictions as quoted by an article in the University World News titled Specifics aside, Trump’s rule will mean less global exchange. They make up a majority of the H-1B applicants. Between 2016 – 2020 (Trump’s first term in office) the average denial rate for H-1B was 18 percent, as opposed to 3.2 percent under the Biden administration.

 But Stephen Miller is not the only person who has Trump’s ear; many powerful tech leaders and venture capitalists surround him.  Do their business interests line up with Miller’s anti-immigration agenda?

 Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, who calls himself “First Buddy”, heads Tesla, and Tesla ranks Number 22 among H-1B visa users.  The company filed more than 2,174 H-1B petitions in 2024. Amazon tops the rankings with 14,261 applications, followed by Cognizant Technology Solutions at 11,423, Ernst & Young at 9,922, Tata Consultancy Services at 9,703, Microsoft at 9, 344 and Google at 8,910. These corporate giants have given millions to Trump’s campaign, so the wishes and requirements of these corporate giants will also have a bearing on policy regarding OPT and H-1B visas.

Talent is in short supply in technology fields; the US needs skilled immigrants. When YUNO LEARNING looks at the study and work climate for Indians in the USA over the next four years, THIS is the strongest reason for optimism.

 We have already mentioned that immigration analysts are not sure what to expect. As a candidate, Mr Trump did not always take the same line.  For instance, on June 20, on the All-In podcast hosted by Silicon Valley angel investor Jason Calacanis, Calacanis told Trump that the need to be able to legally retain more high-skilled workers is a major issue for the tech industry.  “Can you please promise us you will give us more ability to import the best and brightest around the world?” Calacanis asked.  “I do promise,” Trump said. “But I happen to agree, otherwise I wouldn’t promise… You graduate from a college, I think you should get automatically as part of your diploma a green card to be able to stay in this country and that includes junior colleges too.”

But then, immediately after the podcast, a statement from the Trump campaign declared that a second Trump administration would issue green cards after “the most aggressive vetting process in US history” would ensure that only “the most skilled graduates who can make significant contributions to America” will be permitted to remain after they complete their programmes.

 It is a fact that universities and colleges in the US are wary and they are already taking steps to protect their current and prospective international community. 

University Responses Amid Uncertainty Over Immigration Policies

 As published by the HuffPost in its article titled UMass Warns International Students To Return To U.S. Before Trump’s Inauguration, “Before the Thanksgiving break, the UMass Amherst Office of Global Affairs issued an advisory to its international community urging anyone who is traveling for the holiday to return to campus before President-elect Trump is inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2025”.  The advisory reminded all students, staff, scholars and faculty under UMass immigration sponsorship of the travel bans enacted in 2017 by then-President Trump and his apparent interest in revisiting those policies.  UMass Amherst emphasized that its recommendation was simply a precaution.

The International Students Office at MIT sent a similar message to its international community. It also said that the presidential transition could bring extended processing times for entry visas. 

All over the US, colleges are watching for signals from the incoming administration and making contingency plans for several possible scenarios.  

They are well aware that the international student market is highly competitive and that one of the main attractions is access to career opportunities. If these opportunities dry up, international enrollments will fall. 

Starved of the full tuition fees paid by international students, university budgets will take a hit and there will be less and less money to fund research. University rankings rest on research capacity.  Universities that fall in rank are less attractive to students, both domestic and international.

One sees a vicious circle that amounts to a lose-lose situation for everyone … including the American companies which will wave goodbye to talent for the workforce and, consequently, their standing as innovators and market leaders. 

 When YUNO LEARNING talks about “study abroad” we are normally referring to the aspirations of Indian students. The Trump election victory has introduced a different angle – that of American students wanting to study somewhere other than America.

 As per an article published in the Financial Times titled Donald Trump’s victory drives surge in US students seeking courses abroad, “U.S. student inquiries into studying elsewhere spiked five-fold after the election, according to the international education platform Studyportal”. That spike has since leveled out, but U.S. student interest in overseas Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees is still 20 percent to 30 percent higher than the 90-day rolling average.  Studyportals CEO and Cofounder Edwin van Rest described the dramatic and rapid surge as “unprecedented”, adding “We saw similar trends in the last Trump presidency, but not at this scale.”

 Would they consider studying in India?  Why not?  Our IIMs and IITs are world class.

 Here is YUNO LEARNING’s view of the prospects for studying and working in the US for the next four years:

 Admissions: No change. US institutions of higher learning admitted only the brightest before Trump and they will do so now. Admissions are unlikely to become more difficult.  US institutions WANT Indian students. If they didn’t then Indians would not be the largest single national group on American campuses now.

F1 Visas: Refusal rate was NOT higher during Trump’s 1st term

The interview process for getting an F1 visa has always been very rigorous. When Trump came into office in 2016, the denial rate was 35 percent. By 2023, three years into the Biden presidency, the denial rate had returned to 36 per cent. 

In 2016 and 2023 the administrations of Trump and Biden denied F1 visas at about the same rate.  Indeed, the denial rate under the Biden presidency was slightly greater than during the Trump years.  The denial rate hit an eight-year low in 2019 when it sank to 25 percent. (This was just before the outbreak of covid.)  In other words, during this eight-year period, the easiest year for an Indian student to get an F1 visa was 2019 when Trump was president.

Based on these figures, it would be wrong to automatically assume that the rate of visa denial to Indian students is going to increase during the next term of President Trump. 

Work opportunities: Manpower needs are likely to outweigh rhetoric.

The United States began seriously considering merit-based immigration with the introduction of the Reforming American Immigration for Strong Employment (RAISE) Act in 2017. However, the concept of merit-based immigration has been part of discussions and proposals for several years before that. 

Pessimism is justified but corporate pressure is likely to bring about a quiet work-around while allowing Trump to maintain a hard-line image.

In 2020, the Trump administration attempted – and failed – to restrict OPT. The re-elected administration may again seek stricter OPT regulations and intensify work authorization scrutiny. Same story for H-1B applications. Expect a re-run with stricter criteria for salary levels and insistence on a close alignment between degree and job role. Students with degrees in business or liberal arts may find H-1B approval more challenging. International students should look for jobs that closely align with their degrees to improve the likelihood of successful H-1B visa applications. 

Trump has publicly espoused a merit-based system to ensure that America gets only highly skilled people with specialized expertise, especially in manufacturing and technology and especially in STEM fields.

A merit-based system — no quotas, no affirmative action – is likely to benefit Indians. For those with advanced qualifications who can adapt to the requirements, Trump’s policies may offer wider pathways to long-term career success in the US.