Graduate Route Visas Escape the Axe … as Sunak sticks his neck out
Excerpt:
For those who have been following our analysis on the uncertainty surrounding the Graduate Route Visa in the UK, titled “Is the Future of the UK’s Graduate Route Visa Uncertain?“, the anticipation has been palpable. Prime Minister Sunak was at the crossroads: Would he yield to his party’s right-wing faction to secure his political standing, or would he prioritize the sustainability of British colleges and universities?
The awaited decision has finally been announced.
If you are a study abroad consultant or a student aspiring to study and work in the UK, this article is essential for you.
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An official announcement of the government decision is still awaited but UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has reportedly abandoned plans for a radical crackdown on graduate visas.
What saved the Graduate Route Visa programme?
Statistics.
2024 first quarter immigration figures – released on May 23 by UK Home Secretary James Cleverly – can be credited with giving Sunak wiggle-room as he confronts rabidly anti-immigration factions within his own conservative party. The immigration data for 2024 Q1, compiled by the Office of National Statistics, revealed that compared to the same period in 2023:
- Migration on key routes down by 25 percent
- Visa applications across key routes down by 25 percent
[Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/migration-numbers-fall-further-as-measures-have-major-impact ]
In a widely published press statement, Cleverly said that the good news was entirely the outcome of government policies, namely:
- Tighter student visa rules (in force since in January)
- Clamp down on “third tier” diploma mills that allegedly “sell immigration not education”, thus undermining the reputation of British higher education
NSO statistics showed that between January and April this year 30,000 fewer student visa applications were submitted as compared to the same period in 2023. While the “success” of the student visa restrictions was the centerpiece of Cleverly’s message, he also ticked off several other measures:
- Salary threshold for Skilled Worker visas hiked by 48% to £38,700
- Refusal of visas to dependents of health care workers
- Compulsory registration of UK health care worker sponsors with industry regulator Care Quality Commission
- New Immigration Salary List replaces Shortage Occupation List. (This prevents employers from paying migrants less than UK workers in shortage occupations.)
- Minimum income requirement for family visa to be gradually raised to £38,700 (same as Skilled Worker visa) by early 2025
Policy-watchers speculate that, while not abolishing the Graduate Route visa programme, the Sunak government will come up with some changes so that it can claim to be closing loopholes and preventing abuse. Three such measures may be:
1. Clampdown on recruitment agents that market British degree courses overseas. Those who fail to supply the type of students they promise will be penalized.
2. Denial of two-year work experience opportunity to Graduate Route visa-holders who fail mandatory English tests at the end of their studies.
3. Overseas recruitment license cancellation to universities and colleges with high dropout rates.
Another, at least temporary, savior for graduate route visas is the coming storm, soon to overtake Britain’s political climate. On Wednesday afternoon Sunak sprung the date for a snap general election: July 4, a short 42 days from today. Sunak and his party colleagues are going to have priorities far more pressing than graduate student visas. They will be fighting for their political lives. Many observers had expected the poll to be held in the autumn – perhaps in October or November – but Sunak appears to believe the prospects for his party are unlikely to improve between now and then, and he hopes his party will benefit from an element of surprise.
The Conservatives will need quite a lot of surprise if they are to keep Labour out of power. In poll after poll conducted over the past six months, the Conservatives have been trailing, and at present Labour has a clear lead of 20 percentage points. Fear of a Conservative wipe-out is so great that after Sunak’s announcement, some MPs were talking about submitting letters of no confidence.
But Sunak has at least a couple good numbers on his side. Aside from the fall in migration reported by the ONS, the UK’s inflation rate slowed to a near three-year low at 2.3 percent in March. (Commentators point out that the inflation rollback has more to do with changes in the global economy than government policy.)
If, as seems likely, Labour comes to power and Keir Starmer takes over as PM, will it mean sunnier skies for Indian students aspiring to study in the UK? Maybe.
In the Parliament session of May 19, pushing back against Conservative hecklers demanding to know what annual number of migrants Labour considered acceptable, Labour MP Anneliese Dodds said that “Labour believes that setting a net migration target isn’t sensible.” She was supported by Starmer who declared that his party would never “hold businesses back” where they need “talent from abroad”.
The anticipated reprieve for the Graduate Route Visa programme is good news for all international students but especially Indian students. Of the 114,000 graduate route visas issued in 2023, 42 per cent went to Indian students. It’s also good news for companies assisting students to realise their dreams to study abroad … IF they take care to understand all that the UK visa authorities require, and they are thorough in the preparatory courses they offer to their student clients and honest in the guidance that they provide.